Joel

The Cutting Room Floor

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The 2014 Oscar Predictions!!!
Joel
damngoodphil
BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
12 Years a Slave

Despite how close the race is this year, Best Picture ultimately comes down to either 12 YEARS A SLAVE or GRAVITY. 12 YEARS would be the Academy’s safe choice, but with all the (deserved) hype and buzz generated by GRAVITY, this may be one category played a little less safe than in previous years.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Gravity

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

All great, but McConaughey’s had this locked for a while now. Texas forever?

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

If Sandra Bullock could win an Oscar for THE BLIND SIDE, she can definitely win here. However, her performance was also one of the few things about GRAVITY that wasn’t groundbreaking. And while the others were strong, Cate Blanchett stands out as victorious here.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Barkhad Abdi’s performance in CAPTAIN PHILLIPS was absolutely stellar, but Leto has won virtually every award imaginable for his work in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, so it’s hard to believe he’ll lose here.

SHOULD WIN: Barkhad Abdi
WILL WIN: Jared Leto

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

As much as I would love to see June Squibb win (perhaps the most underrated of the bunch in this category), it’s down to either Lawrence or Nyong'o, and Lawrence already won for a far better performance last year.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

David O. Russell has a dark horse chance (those performances in HUSTLE were that good), but let’s face it: Alfonso Cuaron is getting it. No contest.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

After the cold shoulder (no pun intended) the Academy gave WRECK IT RALPH last year, I think Disney has the best shot this time.

SHOULD WIN: The Wind Rises OR Frozen
WILL WIN: Frozen

BEST FOREIGN FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
The Great Beauty, Italy
The Hunt, Denmark
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
Omar, Palestine

Have not seen any of these. Out of my admiration for Mads Mikkelsen, I’m going with THE HUNT.

WILL WIN: The Hunt

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle, Eric Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
Her, Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Bob Nelson

We can eliminate NEBRASKA, DBC, and BLUE JASMINE. HER is the obviously winner, but this could also be another category the Academy plays safe in with HUSTLE, especially since it won’t be winning in any other categories - which is sad, because if there’s one thing HUSTLE should not win for, it’s this category.

SHOULD WIN: Her
WILL WIN: American Hustle

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
Philomena, Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter

Ultimately, it’s down to 12 YEARS or CAPTAIN PHILLPS, but the latter is much more a technical/directorial piece than it is writing.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks

Though GRAVITY seems the obvious choice, it’s also going to be winning almost every other category on the ballot. Desplat’s wonderfully subtle and emotional work on PHILOMENA will take the award here.

SHOULD WIN: Gravity OR Philomena
WILL WIN: Philomena

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Alone Yet Not Alone, from Alone Yet Not Alone
Happy, from Despicable Me 2
Let It Go, from Frozen
The Moon Song, from Her
Ordinary Love, from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

I’m not going to lie - none of these songs stand out as winners to me. The one with the most hype is ‘Let it Go,’ and it likely has the best chance of the bunch.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN (I guess): Let It Go, from Frozen

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners

GRAVITY. This is not up for debate.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Gravity

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave

AMERICAN HUSTLE has great costumes, but the whole ‘looking like kids who raided their parents closet’ vibe works against it. The craftsmanship on THE GREAT GATSBY will be what gets noticed here.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: The Great Gatsby

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

Again, I’ve seen none of them, so I’m going by the synopsis of each.

WILL WIN: The Act of Killing

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Read the synopsis for THE LADY IN NUMBER 6: MUSIC SAVED MY LIFE. If it does not win, several stereotypes associated with the Academy will be proven wrong. And we can’t have that.

WILL WIN: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

BEST FILM EDITING
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

While GRAVITY seems the obvious choice, I have a feeling the Academy will be going with CAPTAIN PHILLIPS here, especially after the news of the A.C.E giving Christopher Rouse the Eddie award for the film.

SHOULD WIN: Captain Phillips OR Gravity
WILL WIN: Captain Phillips

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

Oh, just give it to DALLAS BUYERS CLUB.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Dallas Buyers Club

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

Like Costume Design, GREAT GATSBY will get notice here. Say what you want about Baz - the movies always look incredible.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: The Great Gatsby

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

No idea, haven’t seen them. It’s synopsis and guessing time again!

WILL WIN: Get a Horse!

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem

Ditto the last category. Here goes nothing.

WILL WIN: Helium

BEST SOUND EDITING
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

It’s a tight race between CAPTAIN PHILLIPS and GRAVITY. However, I think GRAVITY will edge it out.

SHOULD WIN: Captain Phillips or Gravity
WILL WIN: Gravity

BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

Again, it’s down to PHILLIPS and GRAVITY, but I think the former, with its larger and more complex action sequences, will actually best the latter here.

SHOULD WIN: Captain Phillips or Gravity
WILL WIN: Captain Phillips


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

Once again, GRAVITY squashes the competition.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Gravity

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