Joel

The Cutting Room Floor

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The 2011 Oscar Predictions!!!
Joel
damngoodphil
BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Lots of great competition here, but let’s break it down: TOY STORY will not win because it’s getting Best Animated Film. Based on the competition, we can immediately eliminate WINTER’S BONE, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, TRUE GRIT, and THE FIGHTER. The remaining five are what I personally believe would be the nominations if the number of best picture nominations was still limited to five. 127 HOURS and INCEPTION are great, but are not nearly generating the buzz that the other three are. BLACK SWAN would be NICE, but it’s doubtful the Academy would award such a dark horse choice. It really boils down to THE SOCIAL NETWORK and THE KING’S SPEECH. THE SOCIAL NETWORK’S buzz has been off the charts almost since before it came out, but THE KING’S SPEECH is going to topple it. It may not be the best movie of the year, but it will win.

SHOULD WIN: Black Swan, Inception, or I guess maybe The Social Network
WILL WIN: The King’s Speech

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours

We can nix Bridges, Eisenberg, and Bardem. While James Franco certainly is deserving of the award, there’s no question who will be walking away with it in this category tonight.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Colin Firth

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
NIcole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Again, all great performances. Michelle Williams has a very, very, dark horse chance to steal it, but she won’t. Natalie Portman for the win.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Natalie Portman

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale - The Fighter
John Hawkes - Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King’s Speech

The only person here who even has a chance of toppling Bale is Geoffrey Rush. And he won’t.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Christian Bale

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

This is perhaps the only acting category that isn’t truly obvious. Everyone keeps talking up Melissa Leo (who was great), but Amy Adams I think may have a clear shot as well. It’s really up in the air, but at least whoever wins will be an actor from THE FIGHTER. And if that is what it ultimately comes down to, it’s Leo.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Melissa Leo

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
How To Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3
The Illusionist

Some interesting omissions (no DESPICABLE ME , TANGLED, or SHREK? Not that they necessarily deserved it, but still) and all terrific choices, but who are we kidding? TOY STORY 3 isn’t just the best of the year; it’s one of the best sequels ever made. It’s a lock.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Toy Story 3

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King’s Speech
Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit
David O. Russell - The Fighter

It’s either Fincher or Hooper. Hooper would certainly be a fine choice, but THE SOCIAL NETWORK would not be what it is without Fincher. Just give it to him already.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: David Fincher

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

Not ANOTHER YEAR or THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT. THE FIGHTER could take it, but it doesn’t stand up to the remaining two. I really, really want INCEPTION (perhaps the most original script for a Hollywood movie since ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND) to take it, but I think THE KING’S SPEECH has this one in the bag. Sorry, Chris Nolan.

SHOULD WIN: Inception
WILL WIN: The King’s Speech

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
The Social Network
Winter’s Bone
True Grit

I’m not really sure how TOY STORY 3 fits in this category (what book?), but it doesn’t matter since it is not going to win. Neither will TRUE GRIT or WINTER’S BONE. James Franco would like us to believe 127 HOURS is the more interesting film, but let’s face it: this would be THE SOCIAL NETWORK’S even if it does win Best Picture along with it.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: The Social Network

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Algeria, Hors la Loi
Canada, Incendies
Denmark, In a Better World
Greece, Dogtooth
Mexico, Biutiful

I have not seen any of these, but based upon word-of-mouth and the synopses/trailers, I would narrow it down to either BIUTIFUL or IN A BETTER WORLD. We'll see.

WILL WIN: Biutiful

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

There’s not a single nomination in this category that doesn’t deserve to win. Let’s see: I think we can eliminate TRUE GRIT and THE KING’S SPEECH. INCEPTION would be welcome, but lacks the grittiness of BLACK SWAN and the careful subtlety of THE SOCIAL NETWORK. I really want BLACK SWAN to take this one, but will it win? I’m going to say yes.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Black Swan

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Exit Through The Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Again, have not seen a single one, so I’m making an educated guess. I would have to say either GASLAND or INSIDE JOB. I personally would really like to see the latter win, but the Academy is a sucker for environmental docs. Oh well.

SHOULD WIN: Inside Job
WILL WIN: Gasland

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Killing In The Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors Of Qiugang

I swear next year I will sit and watch them all. Based on the synopses, they all sound interesting. Here goes nothing!

WILL WIN: The Warriors Of Qiugang

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

While I could see BLACK SWAN stealing it, I cannot fathom how THE SOCIAL NETWORK could lose in this category.

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: The Social Network

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

With ALICE likely taking costume design, it’s doubtful it would get noticed here. All of the others have great effects, but it’s really down to INCEPTION and HARRY POTTER. INCEPTION is snagging all the other technical post awards, but I think HARRY POTTER may have the edge here. On another note, where the hell is TRON: LEGACY???

SHOULD WIN: Inception
WILL WIN: Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Another tough category. ALICE has a strong chance, but so does HARRY POTTER. Of all it’s nominations, this may be the only one TRUE GRIT has a chance of taking, but it won’t. INCEPTION would be nice, but doesn’t have the clout of the others. I have to give ALICE credit: it might not be a very good movie, but the art people at least showed up for work.

SHOULD WIN: Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
WILL WIN: Alice In Wonderland

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Just don’t give it to ALICE IN WONDERLAND. You can do that can’t you, Academy? Oh, and by the way, please give it to THE KING’S SPEECH. I just know how much you guys love period pieces…but you normally give this award to the most lavish design despite the quality of the film. Aye.

SHOULD WIN: The King’s Speech
WILL WIN: Alice In Wonderland

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Could the Academy really give THE WOLFMAN an Oscar? Not if they want to keep their dignity (though really, when has that every stopped them?). Barney’s Version for the win!

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Barney’s Version

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Not THE SOCIAL NETWORK, not THE SOCIAL NETWORK, please, please, ANYTHING but THE SOCIAL NETWORK!!!!

Aw, hell.

Oh, and a slap on the wrist for not nominating Daft Punk for TRON: LEGACY and James Newton Howard for AVATAR: THE LAST AIRBENDER (which on all accounts, is a HORRIBLE film, but has a five-star score that mops the floor with most of the nominees).

SHOULD WIN: Any of them except for The Social Network (especially How To Train Your Dragon).
WILL WIN: The Social Network (sigh)

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Coming Home” from Country Strong
“I See the Light” from Tangled
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3

It's either gonna be "If I Rise" or "We Belong Together." I love the latter, but "If I Rise" is just such a great song and "We Belong Together," though very fun, is nothing we have not heard before from Newman. A.R. Rahman does it again, this time with Dido (I think there's a 'That's What She Said' joke in there somewhere).

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: “If I Rise”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)

Some really fun choices here. I’d like to see MADAGASCAR take it, but honestly, how do you top a Pixar short?

SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Day & Night

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Confession
The Crush
God Of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

I have not seen any of these, but based on the synopses, they all sound very creative. THE CRUSH sounds great, but I think the Academy will go with NA WEWE.

WILL WIN: Na Wewe

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

I just want TRON: LEGACY to walk home with something (especially after being snubbed for Best Original Score and Visual Effects), but I’ll be satisfied with INCEPTION.

SHOULD WIN: Tron: Legacy (please!)
WILL WIN: Inception

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

We can forget about SALT or TRUE GRIT. I’d like to see THE SOCIAL NETWORK get it (why was this not nominated for sound editing over UNSTOPPABLE?!), but I’m going to break protocol and say INCEPTION will take them both.

SHOULD WIN: The Social Network
WILL WIN: Inception

Stay Tuned...

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Can't wait to get involved

(Anonymous)
Hi - I am definitely delighted to discove this. cool job!

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